Analysis: April 1 jobless claims report

North Carolina’s jobless claims that were filed last week climbed to 170,881.  Coupled with the total from two weeks ago, this gives us a Coronavirus-influenced number of layoffs at over 260,000.  To put this in perspective, initial unemployment claims in North Carolina before the virus outbreak were averaging 3,300 per week in 2020.

How does this affect the unemployment rate?  If this rate continued at the pace for the next two weeks, the April unemployment rate in North Carolina should average around 15%.  During the Great Recession that started in late 2007, the peak statewide unemployment rate was 11.4%. That rate, which was realized in January 2010, was the highest recorded in the past 30 years. One must also remember that the next unemployment rate to be released will be for March and should not reflect these recent claims.

I feel certain that the number of virus-influenced claims will continue for more than the next two weeks and that we will easily see a record level of unemployment.   However, I do not have a good idea of how high the number will be, but I am sure that we will once again set a new unemployment rate maximum.

Importantly, there are many North Carolinians that have lost income.  We can only hope that the rescue package dollars that were passed by Congress will quickly get into their hands.

Dr. James Kleckley

Jim Kleckley is the director of professional services and research at East Carolina University’s College of Business and a Research Associate Professor in the Department of Finance. In addition to his day-to-day management of the College’s Office of Professional Programs and its Bureau of Business Research, he participates in research projects and teaches an MBA economics class.

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